*Dofile Social Sciences Article 
*The Fragility-Grievances-Conflict Triangle in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA): An Introduction
*Timo Kivimäki
*Preparation of data
Use UCDP GED 20.1  https://ucdp.uu.se/downloads/index.html#ged_global 
drop id	relid active_year code_status type_of_violence conflict_dset_id conflict_new_id conflict_name dyad_dset_id dyad_new_id dyad_name side_a_dset_id side_a_new_id side_a side_b_dset_id side_b_new_id side_b number_of_sources source_article source_office source_date source_headline source_original where_prec where_coordinates where_description adm_1 adm_2latitude longitudegeom_wkt priogrid_gid region event_clarity date_prec date_start date_end deaths_a deaths_b deaths_unknown high low gwnoa gwnob

*Standardization of country names
replace country = “Sudan” if country == “Sudan (North)”
replace  country = "Congo-Brazzaville" if country == "Congo"
replace  country = "Czechia" if country == "Czech Republic”
. replace  country = "Russia" if country == "Russia (Soviet Union)"
. replace  country = "Zimbabwe" if country == "Zimbabwe (Rhodesia)"
. replace  country = "Cote d'Ivoire" if country == "Ivory Coast"
. replace  country = "Myanmar" if country == "Myanmar (Burma)"
. replace  country = "Cambodia" if country == "Cambodia (Kampuchea)"
. replace  country = "Yemen" if country == "Yemen (North Yemen)"
. replace  country = "Dem. Rep. of Congo" if country == "DR Congo (Zaire)"
replace  country = "Bosnia" if country == “Bosnia and Herzegovina"
replace  country = "Bosnia" if country == “Bosnia & Herzegovina"
replace  country = "Bosnia” if country == "Bosnia-Herzegovina" 
. replace  country = "Serbia & Montenegro" if country == "Serbia (Yugoslavia)"
. replace  country = "Madagascar" if country == "Madagascar (Malagasy)"
. replace  country = "United States" if country == "United States of America"
. replace  country = "Macedonia" if country == "Macedonia, FYR"
. replace  country = "Swaziland" if country == "Kingdom of eSwatini (Swaziland)"
replace  country = "Sudan" if [country == "South Sudan" & year==2011]
replace country = "Sudan" if country == "Sudan (North)"
. replace  country = "Cabo Verde" if country == "Cape Verde"
. replace  country = "Slovakia" if country == "Slovak Republic"
. replace  country = "Sudan" if country == "Sudan (North)"
replace  country = "Sudan" if country == "Sudan-North"
replace  country = "Serbia & Montenegro" if country == "Yugoslavia"
replace  country = "Serbia & Montenegro" if country == "Serbia and Montenegro"
replace  country = "Korea, North" if country == "Korea North"
replace  country = "Korea, South" if country == "Korea South"
replace  country = "Korea, North" if country == "Korea North"
replace  country = "United Arab Emirates" if country == "UAE"
replace  country = "Congo-Brazzaville” if country == "Congo Brazzaville”
replace  country = "Cote d'Ivoire” if country == "Cote D'Ivoire”
replace  country = "Dem. Rep. of Congo” if country == "Congo Kinshasa”
replace  country = "Dem. Rep. of Congo” if country == "DRC”
replace  country = "Cote d'Ivoire” if country == " Cote d'Ivoire”

*Make the GED data annual
egen annualBD =sum( best ), by ( year  country )
sort country year
drop best
egen annualCivilian =sum( deaths_civilians ), by ( year  country )
drop deaths_civilians


sort year country
quietly by year country: gen dub = cond( _N==1,0,_n)
drop if dub>1
drop dub

*State fragility data
use sfi 2018 https://www.systemicpeace.org/inscrdata.html 
*Standardization of country names
replace country = “Sudan” if country == “Sudan (North)”
replace  country = "Congo-Brazzaville" if country == "Congo"
replace  country = "Czechia" if country == "Czech Republic”
. replace  country = "Russia" if country == "Russia (Soviet Union)"
. replace  country = "Zimbabwe" if country == "Zimbabwe (Rhodesia)"
. replace  country = "Cote d'Ivoire" if country == "Ivory Coast"
. replace  country = "Myanmar" if country == "Myanmar (Burma)"
. replace  country = "Cambodia" if country == "Cambodia (Kampuchea)"
. replace  country = "Yemen" if country == "Yemen (North Yemen)"
. replace  country = "Dem. Rep. of Congo" if country == "DR Congo (Zaire)"
replace  country = "Bosnia" if country == “Bosnia and Herzegovina"
replace  country = "Bosnia" if country == “Bosnia & Herzegovina"
replace  country = "Bosnia” if country == "Bosnia-Herzegovina" 
. replace  country = "Serbia & Montenegro" if country == "Serbia (Yugoslavia)"
. replace  country = "Madagascar" if country == "Madagascar (Malagasy)"
. replace  country = "United States" if country == "United States of America"
. replace  country = "Macedonia" if country == "Macedonia, FYR"
. replace  country = "Swaziland" if country == "Kingdom of eSwatini (Swaziland)"
replace  country = "Sudan" if [country == "South Sudan" & year==2011]
replace country = "Sudan" if country == "Sudan (North)"
. replace  country = "Cabo Verde" if country == "Cape Verde"
. replace  country = "Slovakia" if country == "Slovak Republic"
. replace  country = "Sudan" if country == "Sudan (North)"
replace  country = "Sudan" if country == "Sudan-North"
replace  country = "Serbia & Montenegro" if country == "Yugoslavia"
replace  country = "Serbia & Montenegro" if country == "Serbia and Montenegro"
replace  country = "Korea, North" if country == "Korea North"
replace  country = "Korea, South" if country == "Korea South"
replace  country = "Korea, North" if country == "Korea North"
replace  country = "United Arab Emirates" if country == "UAE"
replace  country = "Congo-Brazzaville” if country == "Congo Brazzaville”
replace  country = "Cote d'Ivoire” if country == "Cote D'Ivoire”
replace  country = "Dem. Rep. of Congo” if country == "Congo Kinshasa”
replace  country = "Dem. Rep. of Congo” if country == "DRC”
replace  country = "Cote d'Ivoire” if country == " Cote d'Ivoire”

*Merging GED and SFI data
merge m:1 year country using "C:\Users\Timo\Documents\Research\State Fragility social protection and conflict project\stata analysis\Originals\Analysis\SFI.dta"
drop if year<1995
drop if year>2018
replace annualBD=0 if missing(annualBD)
replace annualCivilian =0 if missing( annualCivilian )
*Malta is the only country that is missing from SFI data.
replace country_id = 5 if country == Malta
drop _merge
*Add Fragility data that is not conceptually linked to conflict data
*New Wars Fragility Index
gen nwfragility= poleff+ polleg+ ecoeff+ ecoleg+ soceff+ socleg
*New War Legitimacy
gen nwlegit= legit- secleg
*New War Efficiency
gen nweffic= effect- seceff
¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬___________
*Add MENA identification
gen MENA=0
replace MENA=1 if country== “Libya” 
replace MENA=1 if country== “Saudi Arabia”
replace MENA=1 if country== “Algeria”
replace MENA=1 if country== “Bahrain”
replace MENA=1 if country== “Egypt”
replace MENA=1 if country== “Iran”
replace MENA=1 if country== “Iraq”
replace MENA=1 if country== “Israel”
replace MENA=1 if country== “Kuwait”
replace MENA=1 if country== “Lebanon”
replace MENA=1 if country== “Morocco”
replace MENA=1 if country== “Oman”
replace MENA=1 if country== “Qatar”
replace MENA=1 if country== “Syria”
replace MENA=1 if country== “Tunisia”
replace MENA=1 if country== “Turkey”
replace MENA=1 if country== “United Arab Emirates”
replace MENA=1 if country== “Yemen”
¬¬¬¬__________
*Merge population data

*Population statistics from World Bank’s World Development Indicators 
*https://databank.worldbank.org/reports.aspx?source=2&series=SP.POP.TOTL&country=#
*Data source: (1) United Nations Population Division. World Population Prospects: 2019 Revision. (2) Census reports and other statistical publications from national statistical offices, (3) Eurostat: Demographic Statistics, (4) United Nations Statistical Division. Population and Vital Statistics Reprot (various years), (5) U.S. Census Bureau: International Database, and (6) Secretariat of the Pacific Community: Statistics and Demography Programme.
*Serbia and Montenegro are separated in the data for 1995-2005. They were merged in the compiling of the data. Sudan and South Sudan were separated in the data for 1995-2011. They were merged.
*Standardization of country names
replace country = “Sudan” if country == “Sudan (North)”
replace  country = "Congo-Brazzaville" if country == "Congo"
replace  country = "Czechia" if country == "Czech Republic”
. replace  country = "Russia" if country == "Russia (Soviet Union)"
. replace  country = "Zimbabwe" if country == "Zimbabwe (Rhodesia)"
. replace  country = "Cote d'Ivoire" if country == "Ivory Coast"
. replace  country = "Myanmar" if country == "Myanmar (Burma)"
. replace  country = "Cambodia" if country == "Cambodia (Kampuchea)"
. replace  country = "Yemen" if country == "Yemen (North Yemen)"
. replace  country = "Dem. Rep. of Congo" if country == "DR Congo (Zaire)"
replace  country = "Bosnia" if country == “Bosnia and Herzegovina"
replace  country = "Bosnia" if country == “Bosnia & Herzegovina"
replace  country = "Bosnia” if country == "Bosnia-Herzegovina" 
. replace  country = "Serbia & Montenegro" if country == "Serbia (Yugoslavia)"
. replace  country = "Madagascar" if country == "Madagascar (Malagasy)"
. replace  country = "United States" if country == "United States of America"
. replace  country = "Macedonia" if country == "Macedonia, FYR"
. replace  country = "Swaziland" if country == "Kingdom of eSwatini (Swaziland)"
replace  country = "Sudan" if [country == "South Sudan" & year==2011]
replace country = "Sudan" if country == "Sudan (North)"
. replace  country = "Cabo Verde" if country == "Cape Verde"
. replace  country = "Slovakia" if country == "Slovak Republic"
. replace  country = "Sudan" if country == "Sudan (North)"
replace  country = "Sudan" if country == "Sudan-North"
replace  country = "Serbia & Montenegro" if country == "Yugoslavia"
replace  country = "Serbia & Montenegro" if country == "Serbia and Montenegro"
replace  country = "Korea, North" if country == "Korea North"
replace  country = "Korea, South" if country == "Korea South"
replace  country = "Korea, North" if country == "Korea North"
replace  country = "United Arab Emirates" if country == "UAE"
replace  country = "Congo-Brazzaville” if country == "Congo Brazzaville”
replace  country = "Cote d'Ivoire” if country == "Cote D'Ivoire”
replace  country = "Dem. Rep. of Congo” if country == "Congo Kinshasa”
replace  country = "Dem. Rep. of Congo” if country == "DRC”
replace  country = "Cote d'Ivoire” if country == " Cote d'Ivoire”


merge m:1 country year using "C:\Users\Timo\Documents\Research\State Fragility social protection and conflict project\stata analysis\Originals\Analysis\population data.dta"
*SFI and GED lacks small island nations for which there is population data. Altogether 355 country years of population data was missed (including Iceland). These countries are removed from the data. Furthermore, Costa Rica and Taiwan are missing from population data. 
drop _merge
drop if missing( country_id )
*Generating fatalities per population data and lagged and leaded fatalities per population data

gen fatalPop= annualBD/ population
gen civilFatPop= annualCivilian/ population
sort country year
by country: gen lagfatalPop =fatalPop[_n-1]
by country: gen leadfatalPop =fatalPop[_n+1]
by country: gen lagcivilFatPop =civilFatPop[_n-1]
by country: gen leadcivilFatPop =civilFatPop[_n+1]
*Effect of various variables on year-on-year change of fatalities per population
sort country year
by country: gen fatpopchange= fatalPop-fatalPop[_n-1]


* Adding Human Development data
use http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/download-data 
*Standardization of country names
replace country = “Sudan” if country == “Sudan (North)”
replace  country = "Congo-Brazzaville" if country == "Congo"
replace  country = "Czechia" if country == "Czech Republic”
. replace  country = "Russia" if country == "Russia (Soviet Union)"
. replace  country = "Zimbabwe" if country == "Zimbabwe (Rhodesia)"
. replace  country = "Cote d'Ivoire" if country == "Ivory Coast"
. replace  country = "Myanmar" if country == "Myanmar (Burma)"
. replace  country = "Cambodia" if country == "Cambodia (Kampuchea)"
. replace  country = "Yemen" if country == "Yemen (North Yemen)"
. replace  country = "Dem. Rep. of Congo" if country == "DR Congo (Zaire)"
replace  country = "Bosnia" if country == “Bosnia and Herzegovina"
replace  country = "Bosnia" if country == “Bosnia & Herzegovina"
replace  country = "Bosnia” if country == "Bosnia-Herzegovina" 
. replace  country = "Serbia & Montenegro" if country == "Serbia (Yugoslavia)"
. replace  country = "Madagascar" if country == "Madagascar (Malagasy)"
. replace  country = "United States" if country == "United States of America"
. replace  country = "Macedonia" if country == "Macedonia, FYR"
. replace  country = "Swaziland" if country == "Kingdom of eSwatini (Swaziland)"
replace  country = "Sudan" if [country == "South Sudan" & year==2011]
replace country = "Sudan" if country == "Sudan (North)"
. replace  country = "Cabo Verde" if country == "Cape Verde"
. replace  country = "Slovakia" if country == "Slovak Republic"
. replace  country = "Sudan" if country == "Sudan (North)"
replace  country = "Sudan" if country == "Sudan-North"
replace  country = "Serbia & Montenegro" if country == "Yugoslavia"
replace  country = "Serbia & Montenegro" if country == "Serbia and Montenegro"
replace  country = "Korea, North" if country == "Korea North"
replace  country = "Korea, South" if country == "Korea South"
replace  country = "Korea, North" if country == "Korea North"
replace  country = "United Arab Emirates" if country == "UAE"
replace  country = "Congo-Brazzaville” if country == "Congo Brazzaville”
replace  country = "Cote d'Ivoire” if country == "Cote D'Ivoire”
replace  country = "Dem. Rep. of Congo” if country == "Congo Kinshasa”
replace  country = "Dem. Rep. of Congo” if country == "DRC”
replace  country = "Cote d'Ivoire” if country == " Cote d'Ivoire”
*Sudan has three figures for year 2011: North Sudan, South Sudan and Sudan. Since North Sudan is changed into Sudan, there will be two figures for Sudan in 2011. The North Sudan specific figure will be removed. South Sudan figures are also removed for pre-2012 time when South Sudan became independent and has data for other variables, too. 

merge m:1 country year using "C:\Users\Timo\Documents\Research\State Fragility social protection and conflict project\stata analysis\Originals\Analysis\HDI data.dta"
drop _merge
*Create lagged and leaded versions of human development data
sort country year
by country: gen laghdi =hdi[_n-1]
by country: gen leadhdi =hdi[_n+1]

*Create indicators of state fragility that are conceptually independent on HDI

gen sfihd= sfi- ecoeff
gen effecthdi= effect- ecoeff
¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬__________
*Adding data on corruption perceptions
use https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi
*This index has a uniform methodology only from 2012, while corruption was measured slightly differently before that. Thus, while it is not possible to compare the transparency score before and after 2012, and since such comparison is vital for this study, I have used the anti-corruptiveness rank (corrank) of countries as an indicator of relative measure. This measure cannot capture global developments as it assumed that the absolute level of corruption does not change in the world (which is admittedly a simplifying assumption). Since there is variation in the capture of the data over year, the rank of each country is divided by the number of countries captured by the data each year. This way the indicator varies between 1 (the most corrupt country) and 1/n (n=number of countries in that year’s data) and gives the highest value to the most corrupt country 1/n to the best country of the n countries of that year (relcorrrank).
*Standardization of country names
replace country = “Sudan” if country == “Sudan (North)”
replace  country = "Congo-Brazzaville" if country == "Congo"
replace  country = "Czechia" if country == "Czech Republic”
. replace  country = "Russia" if country == "Russia (Soviet Union)"
. replace  country = "Zimbabwe" if country == "Zimbabwe (Rhodesia)"
. replace  country = "Cote d'Ivoire" if country == "Ivory Coast"
. replace  country = "Myanmar" if country == "Myanmar (Burma)"
. replace  country = "Cambodia" if country == "Cambodia (Kampuchea)"
. replace  country = "Yemen" if country == "Yemen (North Yemen)"
. replace  country = "Dem. Rep. of Congo" if country == "DR Congo (Zaire)"
replace  country = "Bosnia" if country == “Bosnia and Herzegovina"
replace  country = "Bosnia" if country == “Bosnia & Herzegovina"
replace  country = "Bosnia” if country == "Bosnia-Herzegovina" 
. replace  country = "Serbia & Montenegro" if country == "Serbia (Yugoslavia)"
. replace  country = "Madagascar" if country == "Madagascar (Malagasy)"
. replace  country = "United States" if country == "United States of America"
. replace  country = "Macedonia" if country == "Macedonia, FYR"
. replace  country = "Swaziland" if country == "Kingdom of eSwatini (Swaziland)"
replace  country = "Sudan" if [country == "South Sudan" & year==2011]
replace country = "Sudan" if country == "Sudan (North)"
. replace  country = "Cabo Verde" if country == "Cape Verde"
. replace  country = "Slovakia" if country == "Slovak Republic"
. replace  country = "Sudan" if country == "Sudan (North)"
replace  country = "Sudan" if country == "Sudan-North"
replace  country = "Serbia & Montenegro" if country == "Yugoslavia"
replace  country = "Serbia & Montenegro" if country == "Serbia and Montenegro"
replace  country = "Korea, North" if country == "Korea North"
replace  country = "Korea, South" if country == "Korea South"
replace  country = "Korea, North" if country == "Korea North"
replace  country = "United Arab Emirates" if country == "UAE"
replace  country = "Congo-Brazzaville” if country == "Congo Brazzaville”
replace  country = "Cote d'Ivoire” if country == "Cote D'Ivoire”
replace  country = "Dem. Rep. of Congo” if country == "Congo Kinshasa”
replace  country = "Dem. Rep. of Congo” if country == "DRC”
replace  country = "Cote d'Ivoire” if country == " Cote d'Ivoire”

merge m:1 country year using "C:\Users\Timo\Documents\Research\State Fragility social protection and conflict project\stata analysis\Originals\Analysis\CPI data.dta"
*824 country years missing from the Transparency International data, 177 small islands and non-independent entities listed in the TI data, missing from the rest of the data (these removed). 
drop if missing( country_id )
drop _merge
¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬____________
*Adding a dummy variable on whether an external and US unilateral intervention or a UN peacekeeping takes place in a country year

Data from Kivimäki, Timo. The Failure to Protect. The Path to and Consequences of Humanitarian Interventionism. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing, 2019.

gen usinterv =0
replace usinterv=1 if [country=="Afghanistan" & year>2000]
replace usinterv=1 if [country=="Iraq" & year>2002]
replace usinterv=0 if [country=="Iraq" & year>2011]
replace usinterv=1 if [country=="Iraq" & year>2013]
replace usinterv=1 if [country=="Pakistan" & year>2003]
replace usinterv=1 if [country=="Somalia" & year>2006]
replace usinterv=1 if [country==" Serbia & Montenegro" & year==1999]
replace usinterv=1 if [country=="Libya" & year==2011]
replace usinterv=1 if [country=="Libya" & year>2015]
replace usinterv=1 if [country=="Yemen" & year>2008]
replace usinterv=1 if [country=="Mali" & year>2012]
replace usinterv=1 if [country=="Syria" & year>2013]
gen intervention=0
replace intervention=1 if usinterv==1
replace intervention=1 if [country==”Central African Republic” & year==2006]
replace intervention=1 if [country==”Mauritania” & year==2010]
replace intervention=1 if [country== “Sierra Leone” & year==2000]

*Generation of dummy variables for warstates and fragile states
gen warstate=0
replace warstate=1 if annualBD>0

gen fragstate=0
replace fragstate=1 if nwfragility>6

*Analysis
*Normality
swilk fatalPop civilFatPop region sfi effect legit seceff secleg poleff polleg ecoeff ecoleg soceff socleg nwfragility sfi hdi relcorrrank democ autoc polity2 durable xrreg xrcomp xropen xconst parreg parcomp exrec exconst polcomp 
*none of the variables are normally distributed
*Associations between human development and state fragility (analytically associated variables removed)

spearman hdi sfihd effecthdi legit seceff secleg poleff polleg ecoleg soceff socleg
*Associations between human development and state fragility (analytically associated variables removed) in MENA

spearman hdi sfihd effecthdi legit seceff secleg poleff polleg ecoleg soceff socleg if MENA==1
*Association between human development and corruption 

*After 2011
spearman hdi cpi if year>2011
spearman hdi cpi if [year>2011 & MENA==1]
*Before 2012
spearman hdi cpi if year<2012
spearman hdi cpi if [year<2012 & MENA==1]
*Tested with relative corruption rank
spearman hdi relcorrrank
spearman hdi relcorrrank if MENA==1

*Graphs 1 and 2

twoway (scatter fatalPop nwfragility)
twoway (scatter fatalPop nwfragility) if MENA==1

*Analysis of violence and fragility

*Table 2

spearman fatalPop civilFatPop nwfragility nwlegit nweffic poleff polleg ecoeff ecoleg soceff socleg

. spearman fatalPop civilFatPop nwfragility nwlegit nweffic poleff polleg ecoeff ecoleg soceff socleg if MENA==1

*Impact of US intervention in fatalities per population

mean fatalPop if [usinterv==1 & warstate==1]
mean fatalPop if [usinterv==0 & warstate==1]
mean fatalPop if [usinterv==1 & warstate==1 & MENA==1]
mean fatalPop if [usinterv==0 & warstate==1 & MENA==1]

*Direction of impact between fatalities and US intervention

spearman lagfatalPop leadfatalPop usinterv
spearman lagfatalPop leadfatalPop usinterv if MENA==1

*Primary production violence and US intervention
spearman ecoleg fatalPop if usinterv==1
spearman ecoleg fatalPop if usinterv==0

*Primary production violence and US intervention in MENA

spearman ecoleg fatalPop if [usinterv==1 & MENA==1]
spearman ecoleg fatalPop if [usinterv==0 & MENA==1]

*Testing the direction of impact between ecoleg and conflict fatalities per population
spearman ecoleg lagfatalPop leadfatalPop if usinterv==1
spearman ecoleg lagfatalPop leadfatalPop if usinterv==0
spearman ecoleg lagfatalPop leadfatalPop if [usinterv==1 & MENA==1]
spearman ecoleg lagfatalPop leadfatalPop if [usinterv==0 & MENA==1]

*Table 3 
twoway (scatter fatalPop polleg)(lowess fatalPop polleg ) if MENA==1
spearman polleg fatalPop lagfatalPop leadfatalPop if MENA==1
mean fatalPop if [polleg==3 & MENA==1]
mean fatalPop if [polleg<3 & MENA==1]